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In this Thursday, March 23, 2012 file photo, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin attends the annual GOP convention in Orlando. (The Associated Press)
In his book Beyond the Blue Window, University of Texas political scientist Gary Becker wrote that the 2012 campaign season marked the first significant swing for Democrats since 1972.
This year’s Democrats could lose a lot of ground in a lot of different state races, he argues. Some of that is a direct result of the liberalized politics of 2016, which was marked by increasing public resentment about partisan differences in government and a shift from an emphasis on the state legislative process to one focusing on party and not the other. Becker and other conservative experts believe Democrats in states such as Alaska, Massachusetts, Wisconsin and Florida will also lose ground in the 2016 election.
A Democratic swing in the state of Alaska by 10 points could set off a wave of populist political change in the country over the next several years, according to Becker.
Other indicators, such as the number of women running and the support for President Obama’s re-election next year, indicate how the political class has shifted since the 1970s. In 2015, as many as two-thirds of Alaska’s counties would have been considered for the federal government and only 3 percent of that state’s 1.8 million residents would be eligible for Medicaid or Social Security.
The shift is being marked by increased spending by state politicians and new Republican legislative leaders.
The first major wave of new GOP was in 1994, when Alaska Republican Sen. John McCain went after the state Democratic Party for not running enough on welfare and education issues. That was followed by the party’s 1994 presidential primary, when McCain ran just 1.4 percent on a major issue, and in 2000 he ran just 1.5 percent.
In 2016, it will likely be the reverse trend in the first few weeks of that decade. Democrats will spend big in most of the states by the end of the year that Obama won and won’t have much of anything to lose in 2016. And the same holds true in the three midterm elections in which Republicans have lost more state contests than they would in 2004 and 2005. The biggest losers will still be Republicans who lost the 2010 general election and will lose the upcoming House and Senate races, and not in the current cycle.
It’s very unusual for such a
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